Current global policies and actions would result in about 2.7°C of global warming within 75 years. With about 2.7°C of global warming, Nigeria would be one of the countries that would suffer the most from extreme heat; it would have a climate hotter than any place on Earth today.
Every fraction of a degree of warming increases the damage done by climate change.
If emissions continue as planned, 72% of the country, projected to be home to 300 million Nigerians by 2070, would have a climate hotter than anywhere on Earth today.
Under current policies, southern Nigeria would see over 200 additional hot nights annually (hotter than 90% of current nights). Hot nights make it hard for people to recover from extreme daytime temperatures, making them more likely to suffer heat sickness and less able to work. High humidity can make people suffer even more from high temperatures.
With current emissions policies, extremely high humid heat conditions that currently occur only once a century could affect parts of Nigeria for 100 days per year.
By 2070, 72% of Nigeria's population (300 million people) could experience average annual temperatures exceeding 29°C.
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Flood-related displacement could rise by 500%.
Nigerian children born in 2020 will see 3x more river floods than those born in 1960.
Further warming could lead to an increasingly extreme climate, with greater swings between intense dry and wet spells. If emissions continue as planned, children born in Nigeria in 2020 would experience about three times as many river floods as those born in 1960. The number of people displaced by river floods in Nigeria would grow by 500%, as the magnitude and frequency of floods rise.
If emissions continue as planned, food production in Nigeria would fall due to declines in marine and freshwater fish, worsening conditions for cattle, and lower crop yields. Heat stress would increasingly affect cattle, especially in southern Nigeria, with large parts of the country becoming unsuitable for livestock.
Nigerian children born in 2020 would face three times more crop failures than those born in 1960. Based on changes in average conditions, key crops like sorghum, maize, rice, millet, and cassava could decline by 7%-42%.
Extreme weather affects people’s mental and physical health, and kills many people every year. Extreme heat is the deadliest form of extreme weather. It can also directly worsen people’s mental health, and increase violence and crime. The impacts of extreme weather on people’s lives can cause mental health issues such as anxiety and depression. Children are especially vulnerable to extreme weather.
Nigerian children face some of the worst climate impacts globally, second only to Bangladesh. This vulnerability starts before babies are even born; heat exposure during pregnancy increases risks for mothers and babies. With current emissions policies, there is a predicted 20-25% increase in newborn deaths in Nigeria, and a 10-15% rise in child wasting.
Nigeria is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world, and the current global emissions trajectory will cause a lot of harm to the country. While Nigeria alone cannot change global climate commitments, here are efforts necessary to reduce the impact on the country.
Ibidun Adelekan is a professor of geography with over three decades experience as an academic engaged in teaching and research at the University of Ibadan, Nigeria.
Her field of research expertise focuses on climate and society interactions, vulnerability and resilience of human-environment systems to climate hazards and climate change in cities and coastal areas, and climate change adaptation. Her scholarship is qualified by numerous chapters in books, journals and technical reports published in both national and international outlets.
She was a Co-ordinating Lead Author of the Africa chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report Working Group II on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability and is a Lead Author of chapter 2 (Cities in a changing climate: trends, challenges and opportunities) of the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities. She is a member of the EU-AU High Level Policy Dialogue Expert Working Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Energy.
Professor Daniel Musa Gwary is the Director of the Centre for Arid Zone Studies at the University of Maiduguri, Nigeria, with a distinguished career in climate adaptation and disaster risk management.
A prolific researcher with 71 publications, Professor Gwary’s work spans food security, plant pathology, desertification, and climate resilience. He has received prestigious awards such as the Royal Society of London Research Fellowship and the Fulbright Senior Research Fellowship. As a Lead Author for the IPCC, he was part of the team awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
His efforts have significantly advanced environmental policy and sustainable development initiatives in Nigeria and globally.
